Wargames are useful as a tool for analysis and as a didactic resource for strategic studies. The following scenario, designed to be played in Command Modern Operations (CMO), poses a hypothetical situation of a gray zone conflict between Morocco and Spain that escalates into a limited armed conflict. In addition to being a reference wargame, CMO is also useful as a teaching tool on military capabilities.
The scenario of this wargame allows to become familiar with the weapon systems of both countries at present and in the horizon 2029, based on the information available in the latest editions of Military Balance and specialized portals such as Infodefensa or Defensa.com. From the political point of view, the scenario is based on an extreme ‘what if’ (and today highly improbable) but coherent with the use of hybrid strategies by Morocco in relation to Ceuta and Melilla, and with a less belligerent but in any case dangerous precedent such as the Perejil islet crisis in July 2002. From this point of view, the scenario could be played at the political-strategic level through a matrix game, using the CMO at the tactical level.
The scenario can be downloaded from this link. Below is the briefing with which the scenario starts:
Political and strategic context
The year 2028 was marked by a serious deterioration of relations between Spain and Morocco. The new Alaouite monarch tried to mark his own profile by pushing Moroccan claims over Spanish territories in North Africa. Morocco has escalated the conflict in the gray zone regarding the Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla using the usual hybrid tools: migratory pressure, economic isolation, media and social media campaigns…. The main novelty was the creation of the social movement ‘Front Anti-Colonial’, supported by Moroccan official instances.
At the beginning of 2029 ‘Front Anti-Colonial’ started a campaign of commercial drone flights over Ceuta and Melilla, dropping paint cans on military installations. The images captured by the drones received millions of views on social networks. Several Moroccan government ministers praised the initiative. In an official speech the Alawite monarch declared that the time had come for Spain to put an end to its colonial history in Africa.
On May 3, 2019 a group of civilian boats with ‘Front Anti-Colonial’ activists moved to the Chafarinas archipelago and landed on the island of Isabel II without Moroccan security forces trying to stop them. The activists struggled with the small Spanish garrison. Videos of the incident went viral. A few hours later, Moroccan media reported that one of the activists was in serious condition after receiving a blow to the head. The following day, the King of Morocco recalled his ambassador to Spain for consultations and in an appearance on public television announced the naval and air blockade of the Chafarinas Islands until the Spanish government withdrew the military garrison.
On May 10 the gravity of the situation was confirmed when the Navy auxiliary ship supplying the Spanish rocks in North Africa was intercepted by a Moroccan patrol boat approaching the Chafarinas islands and forced to return to Melilla. A day later the Moroccan Air Force shot down a Spanish Sirtap drone in international waters on an ISR mission to determine the Moroccan military deployment off the coast near Chafarinas. Morocco falsely accused Spain of having violated its airspace.
In the evening of the same day, artillery deployed on the Moroccan coast fired over the waters near Isabel II Island. According to the authorities, it was a response to the shots fired by the Spanish garrison against a Moroccan patrol boat. A fact that was strongly denied by the Spanish authorities while accusing Morocco of aggravating the crisis by spreading false news. Moroccan social networks celebrated the firmness of the Royal Armed Forces. The press and televisions demanded the end of the ‘colonial occupation’.
On May 13, the Spanish government launches a freedom of navigation and sovereignty defense mission. The BAM Audaz escorts a Navy auxiliary ship carrying supplies to the garrison of the Chafarinas Islands. The choice of the BAM instead of a frigate is intended to prevent the situation from escalating. The crisis is increasingly resembling a game of chicken. The F-105 Cristobal Colon has left NATO’s SNMG 2 in the Mediterranean to cover the operation together with the F-85 Navarra. From the Atlantic, the F-101 Álvaro de Bazán and the F-111 Bonifaz are heading for the Alboran Sea. It is not excluded that before reaching the area of operations they will have to face hostile actions in the Strait of Gibraltar. The submarine S-81 Isaac Peral discreetly supports the navigation of the BAM Audaz.
France and the United States consider that the crisis between Morocco and Spain is exclusively a bilateral problem. The media in both countries are sympathetic to Moroccan claims to what they call Spain’s ‘colonial vestiges’. The European Commission and the United Nations Security Council are following developments closely because of the consequences for commercial traffic in the Strait of Gibraltar. Spain has closed air and naval traffic in the Strait and the Alboran Sea, although there are still some civilian vessels in the area. The Spanish government must successfully resolve the crisis as soon as possible.
The Chafarinas crisis is a test of the credibility of Spanish deterrence over the cities of Ceuta and Melilla. In the event of encountering armed opposition, the Spanish government has authorized the use of force against the Moroccan naval and land units responsible for the naval and air blockade. The attack against air bases and other strategic installations inside Morocco is excluded in order to avoid an open war in which Spain is not guaranteed the support of its allies.
Mission
Obtain positive control of the sea and airspace to allow the safe supply of the Chafarinas Islands
Execution
1. Peacefully execute the freedom of navigation mission with the Aggrupation Audaz
In case of armed opposition from Moroccan military units
2. Take positive control of the sea and airspace connecting Melilla and the Iberian Peninsula with the Chafarinas Islands.
3. Destroy hostile naval, land and air units that impede the positive control of the sea and airspace in the area of operations.
Supply the Chafarinas Islands with the CH-47F Chinook helicopter based in Melilla in less than 7 hours (the scenario ends at 17:00 on May 13).
Intelligence on Moroccan forces
To execute the air blockade Morocco has deployed Barak-8 and MICA anti-aircraft systems. It is also supported by F-16V aircraft based in Sidi Slimane and F-16C/D in Ben Guerir. It is not excluded the use of F-5 Tiger II in anti-ship mission from its base in Meknes.
To execute the naval blockade Morocco has deployed the OPV Rais Bargach and two frigates in the Alboran Sea: the FREMM Mohamed VI and the SIGMA Tark Ben Ziyad. The SIGMA Sultan Mulay Ismail has left its base and is at an undetermined point off the Atlantic coast.
Morocco has deployed artillery off the Chafarinas Islands and in the vicinity of the Strait of Gibraltar. It has also activated four battalions of long-range Harop missiles.
The passage of the Paz satellite within minutes of the start of the scenario will provide updated details of the deployment of Moroccan ground units.